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Underestimate Rays at your own risk

Developing their own players and relying on defensive matchups, Tampa keeps defying expectations

Image: James ShieldsGetty Images
James Shields, who makes $7 million a year, heads the game's best five-man rotation for Tampa.

Tony DeMarco
Just in case you forgot how the Tampa Bay Rays continue to spin the best ongoing success story of this baseball century, they gave us another reminder Wednesday.

Down 2-0. Held to one lousy single through eight innings. Dominated in only 81 pitches by reigning AL MVP and Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander. The definition of bleak, right?

Then the Rays bat around without an extra-base hit against Verlander and two relievers in the top of the ninth, and win 4-2.

When are we going to learn? Never doubt the Rays. We wonder how they do it, but we really shouldn't anymore.

Operating on one of the game's tiniest budgets, they've won a pennant, two division titles and made three playoff appearances in the past four seasons, fueled by wins like the one that silenced Comerica Park.

The Rays simply know how to win, despite limitations everybody else thinks should prevent them from doing so.

We saw them pull off a remarkable 31-game improvement, last-place-to-AL pennant in 2008 on a $43 million budget.

With virtually the same payroll, they went on a 17-8 run and snuck into the playoffs as the wild-card team last September, with the help of a huge collapse from the Red Sox, of course.

They've averaged 92 wins over the past four seasons, and are headed to that vicinity this season. This shouldn't surprise us any more.

Forced by budgetary restrictions into a grow-their-own player development formula, the Rays have mastered it. Two more shining examples will play their first full big-league seasons in 2012: Matt Moore and Desmond Jennings.

The Rays will be led by arguably the game's best five-man rotation — all homegrown — at a combined cost of just under $14.6 million, or one elite-level starter: James Shields ($7 million), David Price ($4.35 million), Jeremy Hellickson ($490,000), Moore ($1 million), Jeff Niemann ($1.75 million).

The Tigers spent $214 million to sign Prince Fielder and are 5-1 after winning Thursday. The Rays signed Carlos Pena ($7 million), Luke Scott ($6 million), Fernando Rodney ($2 million), Jose Molina ($1.8 million) and Jeff Keppinger ($1.525 million), and they were 4-2 after six games, leading the AL East. With B.J. Upton, Kyle Farnsworth and Sam Fuld on the disabled list.

This year's Rays payroll is all the way up to a whopping $63 million. Forced to flush out the roster with bargain-basement players, they find ones who possess isolated skills that can help win games.

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Left-handed power? Pena and Scott. Offense-slowing savvy behind the plate? Molina. Contact hitting and defensive versatility? Keppinger. Stockpiled veteran setup depth who can save games in a pinch? Rodney.

And no organization employs cutting-edge statistical metrics to their advantage both offensively and defensively better than the Rays. They consistently are among the game's elite defensive teams, and nobody shifts defenders into unconventional alignments more often. Is there a correlation? You bet.

The overall numbers tell us the Rays' offense doesn't score enough, yet twice in just six games this season, they've come back against two of the best pitchers in the game: Verlander and Mariano Rivera, who was victimized with a blown save on Opening Day.

On Wednesday, they ground out a string of quality at-bats in the top of the ninth by adjusting to Verlander's over-reliance on the fastball, then Ben Zobrist delivered a clutch two-run single off Jose Valverde.


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