In the NFL, the five-year plan died once free agency and the salary cap introduced owners to the concept of the dramatic turnaround. (Thanks for nothing, Greatest Show on Turf.) The three-year plan fell victim to the 2001 Patriots and a string of worst-to-first turnarounds that, while not delivering a Super Bowl title, proved that a new coach and a new attitude can take a team from turmoil to the tournament.

Along the way, four franchises (the Packers in 1999, the Redskins in 2001, the Dolphins in 2007, and the Falcons in 2009) have seen fit to operate on a one-year plan, firing a head coach after only 16 regular-season games.

It has created a sense that, in any given year, no coach enjoys true safety from termination. The looming possibility of a 2011 work stoppage arguably kept several guys from getting poop-canned (thanks, Billy Devaney) during or after the 2009 season, reducing the list of freshly-fired coaches to three — Dick Jauron of the Bills, Jim Zorn of the Redskins, and Jim Mora of the Seahawks.

For 2010, let’s look at the job security of the 32 NFL head coaches, ranking the seats they occupy on a curve, from the hottest to the coldest.

John Fox, Panthers
Actually, Fox’s seat no longer is hot. Owner Jerry Richardson sealed Fox’s fate by making it known that Fox would be returning for the final year of his contract, but that the ninth-year head coach wouldn’t be getting an extension. Speculation promptly ensued regarding a possible negotiated buyout. With only a handful of jobs opening up, Fox opted to defer his job search for a year.

As long as he remains employed, a chance exists that he’ll stay put for 2011 and beyond. It’ll take a great season, with a playoff berth and advancement at least to the division round, and possibly more than that.

With plenty of guys gone, few being added in free agency, Matt Moore expected to be the starting quarterback and two more quarterbacks added via the draft (Jimmy Clausen and Tony Pike), Fox’s chances of remaining are roughly equivalent to the odds of throwing a pack of cards in the air and having them land in a way that creates a scale model of the Eiffel Tower.

Tom Cable, Raiders
Cable occupies a high place on the hot seat list because, well, pretty much every Raiders head coach occupies a high place on the hot seat list. Cable got the job only after Lane Kiffin summarily was dumped early in the 2008 season, and then the Raiders had Cable twist in the wind after the campaign before deciding whether he’d be back for 2009.

After the most recent season, Cable’s status remained uncertain, with the organization hearing the reports and rumors but never saying anything affirmatively to indicate that he’d return.

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He’ll continue to occupy a status that will at times feel like day-to-day employment, especially with Hue Jackson now on board as offensive coordinator. If/when owner Al Davis finally tires of Cable, Jackson will be in position to become the next guy on a chair that’s perched over an eternal flame.

Lovie Smith, Bears
Smith has a simple mission for 2010: Make the playoffs, or else.

After qualifying for Super Bowl XLI, the Bears have missed the postseason three straight times. The most embarrassing outcome came in 2009, when the pairing of a still-potent (or so we thought) defense with a young franchise quarterback who cost two first-round draft picks resulted in yet another failure.

This time around, the Bears have loaded the cannon with a trio of overpriced free agents (defensive end Julius Peppers, running back Chester Taylor, and tight end Brandon Manumaleuna) and a rising wave of expectations, even as they were forced to settle at offensive coordinator with Mike Martz, the one man who could be able to coax emotion out of Cutler, albeit not necessarily in a positive way. The wheels could come off early; if they do, the only question will be whether the Bears clean out the front office, too.

Tom Coughlin, Giants
In 2007, Coughlin faced a win-or-else mandate. He won. Everything.

Since then, the Giants have lost a home playoff game and failed to qualify for the postseason after a 5-0 start. Co-owner John Mara went berserk after the 2009 season, making the message abundantly clear for the coming campaign.

With two years left on his contract, a new stadium opening, and the Jets seizing the bulk of the attention in New York, failure to qualify for the playoffs means that Coughlin will be out of a job – and that Bill Cowher could finally make his return to the NFL.

Eric Mangini, Browns
Throughout much of the 2009 season, the question regarding Mangini wasn’t if he’d be fired or when he’d be fired, but whether the Browns would try to do it with “cause” and thus cut off his ongoing payments.

His first year in Cleveland had been a disaster, damaged by a string of reports that he was too hard on the players and destroyed by a horrendous win-loss record. But then the Browns caught fire late in the season, and new team president Mike Holmgren apparently decided that giving Mangini at least one more year represented a no-lose proposition.

If Mangini loses, Holmgren will make the easy decision to move on. And then Holmgren likely will give Jon Gruden a call.

Wade Phillips, Cowboys
Phillips’ biggest strength comes from the fact that he lets owner/G.M. Jerry Jones set the table with players. Unlike two big-name Cowboys coaches from past years (Jimmy Johnson and Bill Parcells), Phillips has no qualms about letting a man whose credentials came from the ability to write the check for the purchase price of the franchise run the show.

Thus, before Jones ever dumps Wade, the 21-year owner would need to be confident that he can find a successor who can blend subservience with strong coaching. So far, Jones hasn’t felt compelled to try.

Still, with Phillips’ contract being extended only from 2010 through 2011, he remains one missed playoff berth away from a pink slip – especially since the coming tournament culminates in a title game at Jones’ billion-dollar clubhouse.

Jack Del Rio, Jaguars

An all-in decision to dump quarterback Byron Leftwich and to give the job to David Garrard coupled with a playoff berth nailed down a long-term extension for the veteran head coach, who arguably would have been fired after 2008 (and should have been fired after 2009) but for the large buyout.

With each passing season featuring regular attendance of less than 50,000 and no postseason, another bad year could be the last straw, especially with G.M. Gene Smith now firmly in charge.

But last year’s strong draft coupled with an aggressive approach to free agency could stave off termination for another year – but only if Garrard can play like he did back in 2007.

Raheem Morris, Buccaneers
The bad news for the second-year coach is that, by all appearances, ownership doesn’t want to pay for players. The good news is that ownership also doesn’t want to pay for buyouts.

Morris rose from defensive backs coach to defensive coordinator to (without working a single game as defensive coordinator) head coach. After he completed a horrible first season in place of Jon Gruden that featured the termination of both coordinators that Morris had hired, rumors and reports flew that the Bucs were willing to swap out Morris for Bill Cowher. In the end, the Bucs opted to stand pat.

With blackouts looming for 2010 and ownership no longer willing to pay for thousands of unsold seats, Morris likely will have to show real progress this year, or the Bucs once again will be toying with the possibility of an upgrade.

Jeff Fisher, Titans
In 1995, Jets owner Leon Hess decided a bold move was required if the team were to have any shot at winning a Super Bowl during his lifetime. As a result, Hess fired Pete Carroll after only one season and then hired Rich Kotite.

Needless to say, more than a decade after Hess died, the Jets still are working on that next Super Bowl win.

In Tennessee, Bud Adams is 87 – and he’s starting to sound like a guy who’s wondering whether the current regime will be able to deliver a Lombardi Trophy. Most recently, Adams said that Fisher and G.M. Mike Reinfeldt have made “big mistakes.” It’s hardly the kind of endorsement that will keep Fisher from being fired if the Titans fail to qualify for the playoffs. Actually, Fisher could be operating under a “Super Bowl or bust” mandate.