Teams poised to improve this season
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A year ago, Alabama was coming off a six-loss season that included an embarrassing home stumble against Louisiana-Monroe. The Tide responded with 12 victories in 2008 and remained in the national championship discussion until December.
So who's this year's Alabama?
Sporting News college football writers Matt Hayes and Dave Curtis offer five teams apiece -- schools they believe will show the most improvement in the win column from 2008 to 2009:
Matt Hayes' top five
1. UCLA, +5
2008: 4-8
2009: 9-4
Here's why: Every once in awhile, we're reminded why college football is unexpectedly beautiful: Redshirt freshman QB Kevin Prince wasn't a big recruit and wasn't really in the plans for Rick Neuheisel and Norm Chow at UCLA. Now he has control of the offense, showing a live arm and a feel for Chow's successful offense. This team wasn't nearly as bad as its record last year. It simply gave away too many turnovers from the quarterback spot. Big, physical wideouts and improved protection will ease Prince's transition and allow UCLA to move back into the upper third of the Pac-10.
2. SMU, +5
2008: 1-11
2009: 6-7
Here's why: After all the turmoil and carnival sideshow from Year 1 under June Jones, this reality stands clear: Those who stuck it out through the debacle of 2008 will be rewarded this fall. Jones has a better feel for his players and Conference USA, and his two recruiting classes are beginning to shape the roster. Half of the Mustangs' eight league losses last year were by seven points or fewer, and QB Bo Levi Mitchell will be more comfortable in the run-and-shoot offense.
3. Colorado, +4
2008: 5-7
2009: 9-4
Here's why: Dan Hawkins proclaimed the goal of 10 wins this fall, and this team isn't that far from it. As much as anything, the Buffs need to stay healthy on the offensive line and build some continuity and consistency. CU is much better on the interior lines than when Hawkins arrived three years ago. Losing speedy WR/KR Josh Smith last week hurts, but the emergence of uber-talented TB Darrell Scott gives the running game a pile-mover who will open up play-action for QB Cody Hawkins.
4. Oklahoma State, +3
2008: 9-4
2009: 12-1
Here's why: We all know about the triple threat of Heisman Trophy candidates QB Zac Robinson, RB Kendall Hunter and WR Dez Bryant. The difference this fall will be the impact of new defensive coordinator Bill Young. He knows the league (remember Kansas, 2007?) and the Cowboys have speed and athleticism on that side of the ball. The defense simply has to get multiple stops in big games -- something it couldn't do last year, but will get done this fall. And that still may not be enough for the Big 12 to avoid another postseason disaster (see: Texas beats Oklahoma, Oklahoma State beats Texas, Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State).
5. North Carolina State, +3
2008: 6-7
2009: 9-4
Here's why: Maybe this is the plan all athletic directors should follow: Hire a terrific recruiter to build personnel, and when it eventually fails, hire a teacher/disciplinarian. As bad as it looked early last fall, the players and new coach Tom O'Brien -- the most underrated coach in the game -- finally clicked in the second half and the 'Pack won four of their last five. Terrific sophomore QB Russell Wilson is a dynamic threat, but this team badly needs TB Toney Baker -- who missed most of the last two seasons with a knee injury -- and incoming freshman James Washington to create balance with the running game.
Dave Curtis' top five
1. Washington, +5
2008: 0-12
2009: 5-7
Here's why: Well, the Huskies can't win any fewer. And a perfect storm of circumstances makes them the pick to win a bunch more. The program's energy alone should do a 180 with Steve Sarkisian in charge. A watered-down trip through the nonconference (hello, Idaho; see ya, BYU) will help. UW's best offensive player (Jake Locker) and second-best defensive player (E.J. Savannah) are healthy and eligible, respectively. And the bottom of the Pac-10 ranks as poor as ever -- road games against Arizona State and Washington State look like wins.
2. Arkansas, +4
2008: 5-7
2009: 9-4
Here's why: Where Bobby Petrino goes, wins follow. He'll be this season's example of the second-year bump enjoyed at the highest level by Bob Stoops, Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer, among others. If Ryan Mallett can quit breaking fingers, he's the best quarterback in the SEC West. Four wins seems a given in nonconference play (Missouri State, Eastern Michigan, Troy and Texas A&M in Dallas). And the defense will tackle well enough to manage a 4-4 SEC record and a win in the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
3. Illinois, +3
2008: 5-7
2009: 8-5
Here's why: Turnovers and poor tackling doomed the Illini last season, especially against better-disciplined teams such as Northwestern and Iowa. The youth up front on both sides of the ball will develop, and Illinois will benefit from catching Missouri and Fresno State in down seasons. Look for Juice Williams-to-Arrelious Benn to become the most potent offensive tandem in the Big Ten.
4. Auburn, +3
2008: 5-7
2009: 8-5
Here's why: Don't expect another tumultuous season on The Plains. The new coaching staff, with its limousines on recruiting trips and Big Cat Weekend for unofficial visits, has at least unified the program. Tommy Tuberville's recruits will keep this defense strong, and by midseason, new offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn will turn one of Auburn's quarterbacks into a proficient passer.
5. Southern Miss, +3
2008: 7-6
2009: 10-4
Here's why: A no-huddle offense, plus eight starters back on defense, should equal the Golden Eagles' return to the top of Conference USA. They'll grab at least one upset when they face Virginia and Kansas on consecutive weeks in September, with back Damion Fletcher (suspended for spring practice) and receiver DeAndre Brown (if healthy) carrying the squad.
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