Just which teams vying for the NFL postseason actually have a chance to reach Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa, Fla.? Tom Curran is here to sort out the top teams and figure out which are contenders and which are pretenders.

The top teams from the NFC and AFC are listed below, in decending order of best to worst.

NATIONAL FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

New York Giants
Record: 11-1

Even when star wideout Plaxico Burress pops a cap in his right thigh two nights before a key division game, the Giants remain undaunted. Last year, they lucked into a Super Bowl title. This year – behind the league’s best running game, Eli Manning’s quietly brilliant season and a defense that’s at once rugged and spectacular – they’re poised to storm into Super Bowl XLIII in Tampa.

Verdict: Contenders

Dallas Cowboys
Record: 8-4

With every fiber in my body rebelling against giving them a shot as long as Wade Phillips waddles on their sidelines, I could not resist. The Cowboys have gone through their blue period, they seem slightly galvanized and, even if their guts and smarts don’t work in their favor, their overall talent does.

Verdict: Contenders

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 9-3

Wouldn’t be something to see the Bucs at home for the Super Bowl? Won’t happen. Defensively, they’re a wet blanket, allowing an NFC best 16.7 points per game. But every time they leave Florida to play a decent team, they lose. They also lost at New Orleans, at Denver and at Dallas to a Brad Johnson-quarterbacked team. They cannot, and will not, catch lightning in a bottle and beat the Giants on the road in the NFC Championship. If they can win at Carolina and Tampa in the next two weeks, I’ll change my tune. Until then? Frauds.

Verdict: Pretenders

Atlanta Falcons
Record: 8-4

They are 8-4 and – with a wonder boy quarterback, a jet-propelled bowling ball playing running back and a feel-good story for the ages – you’d love to see them get to Tampa. But they can’t. Look, as good as Matt Ryan and Michael Turner and that playmaking defense is, the NFL playoffs isn’t a place for novices. Half the players on this team still have the tags on them they’re so new. Next year, OK?

Verdict: Pretenders

Carolina Panthers
Record: 9-3

Love the 1-2 punch of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. Between them, they’re rushed for more than 1,500 yards and have 17 touchdowns. The Panthers’ problem is defense. The last two weeks, they’ve allowed 76 points. They got down to the Lions (??!!) 17-0. Another bunch of NFC South homebodies who shrink when they have to leave the confines of home.

Verdict: Pretenders

Minnesota Vikings
Record: 7-5

They had a shot, they really did. Then the Williams boys — Pat and Kevin — got suspended for testing positive for a banned substance. That rips the heart from a defense that was allowing just 73 yards per game on the ground. Now, even with an equalizer like Adrian Peterson who's averaging 4.9 yards per carry, it's going to likely be a one-and-done proposition if they can hold off the Bears in the AFC North.

Verdict: Pretenders

Chicago Bears
Record: 6-6

I’ve seen enough. You’ve seen enough. We’ve seen enough. Despite their insistence on throwing up some of those, “Hey, check out the Bears!” results (wins over the Colts and Eagles), they are wildly inconsistent and easily solved by decent teams. Also, I believe there’s a rule that states: “Any team stopped on fourth-and-goal from the 1 and then allows a 99-yard touchdown pass on the ensuing play is not allowed to compete for a championship.” Checking on it.

Verdict: Pretenders

Arizona Cardinals
Record: 7-5

Break out the hats and t-shirts, the Cardinals are going to the playoffs! And, hopefully, they get a first-round rematch in the desert with the Cowboys because that will be the most entertaining game of Wild Card weekend. After that, it’s thanks for coming, Cards. They aren’t winning east of the Mississippi. Too brittle on the mouse-sized hands of Kurt Warner.

Verdict: Pretenders

AMERICAN FOOTBALL CONFERENCE

New York Jets
Record: 8-4

The Jets’ recent loss to Denver was a puzzler, but you can probably chalk that up haughty self-importance after their win over previously unbeaten Tennessee. Expect the Jets to get serious. The reason they are a threat to win the AFC is the reason they may not get there: Brett Favre. The Jets score 28.3 points per game, second in the NFL. Favre’s ability to create explosive plays for players up and down the roster – guys who were just OK with Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens throwing to them – has made them scary. But Favre’s bouts of offensive sanity are temporary. When he melts down and whether he takes the whole team with him is the Jets’ biggest threat to success.

Verdict: Contenders

Tennessee Titans
Record: 11-1

Love ‘em. They’re like the anti-Cowboys, getting much, much more out of less, playing (generally) with discipline and selflessness and turning themselves over to a coach whom they respect. As much as people want to throw darts at Kerry Collins because he’s old or throws funny, the barrier to playoff success for Tennessee isn’t Collins, it’s the lack of a potent outside receiver to threaten defenses with long passes. They’re going to have to keep teams under 17 throughout the playoffs. But they can.

Verdict: Contenders

Indianapolis Colts
Record: 8-4

It’s easy to love a team that starts 3-4 and rips off five wins a row. The Colts’ time as one of the NFL’s elite teams is coming to an end, but right now they are getting it done like Oscar Robertson did when he was riding sidecar to Kareem Abdul-Jabbar with the Bucks. (Wow, where’d that reference come from?) Guile, baby, guile. With Peyton Manning and the best temp safety in the league, Bob Sanders, they could get whisked out in the first round or they could stun the planet.

Verdict: Contenders

Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 9-3

James Harrison may have overtaken Albert Haynesworth in the race for Defensive Player of the Year. Behind his big-play abilities at linebacker, the Steelers can rush, they can cover, and it’s hard to run on them. Pittsburgh will go as far as its offensive line allows it to. If it can protect Ben Roethlisberger and keep him from trying to make those stupid hero plays under duress, it can beat anybody. I’m a little concerned about its running game, though.

Verdict: Contenders

Baltimore Ravens
Record: 8-4

They’re not ready yet. They absolutely obliterate the teams they should but they’re not ready to deal with the iron on a regular basis – as the devastation by the Giants showed. They’ll get there. But this season has been more a by-product of smart playing and coaching than talent.

Verdict: Pretenders

Denver Broncos
Record: 7-5

Frauds. Phonies. Charlatans. Fakers. Posers. Dissemblers. Pretenders. Deceivers. Beguilers. Fakes. They will go to the playoffs while teams like the Dolphins, Patriots, Ravens or Colts sit and watch. The Broncos parade of inconsistency – losses to the Raiders and Chiefs, a 41-7 beating by the Patriots, wins at Atlanta and the Jets – are testimony to the fact that have neither head nor heart. God help the AFC West. They’re a bad banana with a greasy black peel. (Yeah, my kids are watching The Grinch as I write this).

Verdict: Pretenders

Miami Dolphins
Record: 7-5

Chad Pennington is the perfect quarterback to take a team from one win to nine wins in a single season. He won’t wound a game plan with friendly fire unlike his successor with the Jets. But when you take away those short and intermediate throws at which Pennington excels and force him to hit that 25-yard over-the-corner, in-front-of-the-safety throw along the sidelines, he’s away from his strength. And the Dolphins then become dependent on gadgetry and Ronnie Brown. Meanwhile, they’re not talented enough in the secondary (aside from Will Allen) to match up with the AFC’s best wideouts.

Verdict: Pretenders

New England Patriots
Record: 7-5

They can’t cover anybody. At all. The first celebrated departure to come back and bite them hard in the posterior – cornerback Asante Samuel – will be part of the reason they won’t make the playoffs. The funny thing is, when Tom Brady went down, some figured the offense would be the barrier to their success. As it turns out, it hasn’t been (credit to Matt Cassel, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and the Pats personnel department for that not happening). But their defense is kind of embarrassing.

Verdict: Pretenders

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