Tom E. Curran • E-mail

Last season, after six weeks of play, the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers were each 4-2. The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans were both 3-3.

That's a tidy combined record of 18-12.

And how'd that work out for them? Not that great.

The Ravens and Chiefs won one game the rest of the way. Detroit and Carolina each went 3-7 in their final 10. The Texans remained average going 5-5 to finish 8-8.

The combined record of these teams over their final 10 games? 13-39.

On the flip side, after six games last year, the soon-to-be Super Bowl champion Giants were 3-3 (and outscored 124-123 at that point) and the eventual AFC runners-up, the Chargers, were also 3-3. Tom Coughlin and Norv Turner were both ducking calls for their heads.

OK, so there's no breaking news here. You have your ebbs and you have your flows and the teams that may be ebbing now could be flowing right into the playoffs in December.

But what seems to happen more frequently is that teams that flow early ebb hard once the rest of the league gets a read on them and the attrition of injury takes its toll.

What it comes down to is figuring out who's an early-season fraud.

One of the most intriguing games between possible phonies occurs this weekend in Denver where the 2-3 Jaguars visit the 4-1 Broncos.

Both teams are hard to figure. The Broncos have allowed 130 points in five games. Only the Chiefs, Lions and Rams (a combined 1-12) have allowed more. Yet they are 4-1.

How does this compute?

Well, when you balance in the major indicators of a successful passing attack -- completion percentage, yards, yards per attempt, touchdowns, sacks, interceptions and offensive points -- Denver’s got the most potent attack in the league. Young Jay Cutler is playing really well and one of the best stats to indicate his precision at the position is this: he’s taken an NFL-low two sacks so far even though he’s third in attempts per game (38.4).

But there’s something a little more ominous about Denver's record and Cutler's success and statistics. They’ve played some pretty weak defenses. The Chargers have allowed more yards per game through the air than any team in the league. New Orleans is well into the bottom half of the league defensively and the Chiefs have the worst defense in the AFC. Denver’s other opponents, the Bucs and Raiders, are above average statistically on defense so far. Meanwhile, Denver has played three of its five games at home (it’ll be four of six after Sunday) and their opponents' combined record is 9-15.

They are paper tigers.

By contrast, consider the 2-3 Jags.

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They've had a helluva slate to open the season with -- at Tennessee and hosting Buffalo (a combined 9-1), at Indy and hosting Houston and the Steelers. Had the Jags not pulled out a late win at Indy, they could be 1-4.

Statistically, they are mediocre, heading toward bad in the bottom half to bottom third on both sides of the ball in majority of "from scrimmage" categories.

What gives with them? Well, quality of opponent for one thing. And, linked to that, is the fact that they’re not scoring like they did last year. In 2007, Jacksoville was sixth in the league with 411 points. This year they have 100 through five games. Their per-game scoring average is off from 26 points per game to 20. And their three losses have come by a total of 16 points. The Jags are also getting annihilated on third down, allowing opponents to convert 49.2 percent of the time. Last year, it was 39.8. They’re not converting at the same level on offense, either. In 2007, Jacksonville was a 45.7 on third down and a ballsy 19 for 33 on fourth down (57.6 percent). This year they’re converting 37.5 on third down.

But look at the Jags' upcoming slate and you see that they are just about through the hard part. After Denver, they have their bye then play Cleveland, Cincinnati, Detroit, Minnesota and Houston in five of their next six games.

Their best football likely lies ahead of them. The Jaguars are sleeping lions.

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