Tony DeMarco

It’s hard to envision anything other than an American League Championship Series filled with close games decided by pitching and defense.

That’s how it was during the AL East dogfight between the Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox, and as Rays manager Joe Maddon said the other day, “I think you can expect a lot of what you saw in the regular season; I do.’’

Of the 18 regular-season games the Red Sox and Rays have played (10-8 Rays), eight were decided by two runs or less, and three more were three-run games. And in those 18 games, one side scored three runs or less 14 times, and there were two shutouts and two 2-1 games.

The trends were even stronger at Tropicana Field, where the nine final scores were 5-4, 2-1, 3-0, 5-4, 3-1, 7-6, 3-0, 5-4 and 4-2. And then came Friday's Game 1, won by Boston 2-0.

All of which makes the starting pitching matchups laid out by Maddon and Boston’s Terry Francona so intriguing — and likely pivotal — in the best-of-seven series in which the Rays have home-field advantage.

Maddon is headed for an AL Manager of the Year award as one of the most out-of-the-box thinkers among big-league managers, but this time, he’s playing it straight. The Rays arel going with the same order through the first four games as they did in the division series — James Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza and Andy Sonnanstine.

Francona, however, threw a change-up with his rotation, switching from his division series order to Daisuke Matsuzaka, Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Tim Wakefield (who didn’t appear against the Angels.)

Matsuzaka came through in Game 1, taking a no-hitter into the seventh in Game 1. During the regular season, he was unbeaten on the road: 9-0-2.37, and 9-3-3.34 at Fenway Park. Against Tampa, he pitched only five innings in each of three starts, going 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA.

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Starting Matsuzaka in Game 2 would have lined him up for two road starts in this series, but Francona had a bigger goal in mind. And that is to line up Josh Beckett and Jon Lester for potential Games 6 and 7 in Tropicana Field.

Beckett’s past postseason dominance is well documented, but he hasn’t been that pitcher for much of this season. And he certainly wasn’t against the Angels, when after missing a start due to an oblique injury, he labored through five tedious innings, allowing four runs.

The Red Sox say rust — as opposed to lingering pain — was the issue, and Beckett’s fastball velocity readings supported that. But they had better hope they’re right, and that Beckett gains more command in his upcoming starts.

The good news for the Sox is Beckett has been outstanding against the Rays this season: 2-1 with a 2.06 ERA in five starts, with only five walks and 37 strikeouts. Twice in September, he held them to one run in outings of six and eight innings.

And in Kazmir, Beckett will be matched against a pitcher who is struggling of late. Twice in his last four starts, Kazmir has served up four home runs. One of those starts was in Fenway, when he was shelled for nine runs in three innings. In his last five starts — including two against Boston — he has allowed 17 runs and nine homers in 25.1 innings.

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The Lester-Garza matchups also favor the former — the Sox’s real ace these days. Garza has as dominating stuff as anyone when he’s right, but has battled consistency and anger issues on the mound. Like Shields, his home-road split is big — 7-3-2.29 at home to 4-6-4.53 on the road – and his one start at Fenway wasn’t good — five runs allowed in 5.1 innings.

Lester is in the midst of a breakout season that included a no-hitter, and he has dominated the Rays — 3-0, two earned runs in 20 innings. Saving him for Game 3 gets him one home start, where he has been almost unbeatable — 11-1-2.49 as opposed to 5-5-4.09 on the road. And who wouldn’t want him going in a potential Game 7?

Wakefield’s three starts against Tampa this season all were at Tropicana Field, where historically, he had been dominant. The results: Two good and one bad — a Sept. 17 outing in which he allowed six runs in 2.1 innings.

Sonnanstine could become a more-important figure than we think. He managed to avoid the Red Sox until two starts in September, when he allowed only two unearned runs in 13 innings.

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If Sonnanstine wins Game 4 or at least pitches impressively, the extra off-day between games four and five could allow some rotation tinkering, and he could be on the mound for a Game 7.

But for now, Maddon is planning on Shields, Kazmir and Garza for Games 5, 6 and 7 — if the series extends that long.

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