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Slow starts won't sink playoff hopes

Sub-.500 teams like Chargers can still recover thanks to NFL's parity

Image: Turner
Alan Diaz / AP
Norv Turner's Chargers dropped to a 2-3 after a loss on Sunday, but they'll still be in the playoff hunt, writes Mike Celizic.
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PassingComp.Att.YardsTDs
1. J. Cutler, Broncos27433572
2. T. Romo, Cowboys22343313
3. E. Manning, Giants21343051
RushingAtt.Yds.Avg.TDs
1. T. Jones, Jets161388.62
2. M. Lynch, Bills161348.40
3. A. Peterson, Vikings281314.71
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1. M. Clayton, Ravens516432.81
2. B. Berrian, Vikings412230.51
3. J. Witten, Cowboys911512.81
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SUNDAY LESSONS FROM WEEK 5
By Mike Celizic
NBCSports.com contributor
updated 11:42 p.m. ET Oct. 5, 2008

Mike Celizic
We’re so used to either burying teams or elevating them to Super Bowl contenders after a few games, because that’s the way it used to be. A team starts 2-0 or 0-2 and you start to make judgments that are usually confirmed within another two weeks.

Not this year, not in the NFL where the dreaded “P” word — parity — rears its head like Putin over Alaska. It’s Week 5, and other than a couple of teams at the top and a handful at the bottom, you can’t sort out this league.

That should be good news for most fans. You can pretty much count out the 0-4 and 0-5 teams: St. Louis, Houston, Detroit and Cincinnati. And it’s hard to think that the 1-4 Chiefs are going anywhere.

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OK. That’s five of 28 teams that are probably finished. But who else definitely is? And other than the Giants, who else has actually looked like a world-beater?

Don’t tell me the Titans. They’ve been impressive, never more so than Sunday, when they somehow — maybe with a bit of help from the officials — drove 80 yards on the previously impenetrable Ravens’ defense to get the go-ahead score and run their record to 5-0.

But Tennessee is doing it with Kerry Collins at quarterback, and he’s the equivalent of Vinny Testaverde or Drew Bledsoe — a big arm, with a big talent for big turnovers in big games. Call me when the Titans have gone 8-2 and we’ll talk. They’ve got a three-game bulge on Indianapolis and Jacksonville, but I’m not ready to give them the division.

Then look at the teams that should be out of it. You could say the 1-3 Browns are finished, but not when 2-3 is a second-place record. Oakland has the same record and is fighting Detroit for the title of Most Dysfunctional Franchise. But the Raiders have shown signs of competence. That’s enough to give them another week or two.

You would also like to bury the 1-3 Seahawks, especially after losing 44-6 to the Giants. But look at the division they’re playing in: the NFC West. You want to tell me they don’t have a chance of overtaking Arizona and San Francisco?

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It’s not that teams are bad; it’s that they are incomplete. Other than the Giants, who feature a defense as stingy as its offense is prolific, the other contenders have all already been exposed in one aspect.

The Colts should have lost again this week, but were handed the game by Houston. Dallas had to fight for their lives against the Bengals. Green Bay went from great, to awful, to perplexing. Chicago is still suspect on offense. Denver should be listed as an elite team, but not after what Kansas City did to them a week ago. Atlanta has been revived by Matt Ryan and looks like a dangerous team. The Saints are having their customary slow start, but looked a lot better last week than a .500 team.

Then you have the Chargers. They were picked as a playoff team, but lost their first two games. They lost again on Sunday to fall to 2-3, and that should be enough to start people like me to start writing the obituary.

But San Diego’s two wins happen to be the same number of wins ever other second-place team in the AFC has. In fact, there are six two-win teams in the AFC after five weeks of play and just one undefeated team — 5-0 Tennessee. Denver and Pittsburgh have four wins and New England has three. That's it.

And just look at the teams that were supposed to be out of it. The Dolphins were consigned to the draft lottery after the season’s first week. So they go out and beat New England and the Chargers to even their record at 2-2.

Baltimore is 2-2, after brutal back-to-back losses. But nobody’s writing off the Ravens. They’re still not great offensively, and they’ve had defensive letdowns late in the game against the Steelers and the Titans, but they will beat the phlegm out of you. Nobody wants to face them.


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