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Which teams will end NCAA tourney droughts?

Arizona State will qualify, but Michigan, Florida St. and Missouri won't

Image: James Harden
Paul Connors / AP
James Harden will lead Arizona State to it first NCAA tournament this year since 2003, writes Mike DeCourcy.
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OPINION
By Mike DeCourcy
updated 8:10 p.m. ET Sept. 24, 2008

Mike DeCourcy
About this time of year, as you pass through the airport or grocery store, you'll find various college basketball yearbooks making predictions about the 2007-08 season. The Sporting News' version comes out Oct. 7.

Here's one list you will not find if you're willing to be patient — the list of the hungry, and whether they will be satisfied by March.

These teams have waited a combined 38 years since their last NCAA Tournament appearance, but you can be sure that all of them approach the season believing that this could be the year.

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Arizona State
Last NCAA trip: 2003. Of all the teams on this list, the Sun Devils have to be preparing for the season with the highest level of confidence. Many, including Sporting News, believe ASU will be a Top 25 team.

The Sun Devils have the Pac-10's best returning player, James Harden, a solid big man in Jeff Pendergraph and plenty more to go with those guys. The schedule probably doesn't have name recognition — ASU tried to land a game with Georgetown, but it didn't work out — which means success in the Anaheim Classic will be important.

But we're really just talking about this for seeding purposes, not for getting in. ASU will be a no-brainer pick for the committee.

Verdict: In, easy.

Florida State
Last NCAA trip: 1998. It seemed as if Jason Rich and Isaiah Swann spent their entire college careers on the bubble.

This year, the Seminoles might be happy just to be snubbed. The backcourt will rely primarily on Toney Douglas, who is every bit the point guard Auburn thought he was before Douglas transferred. (which is to say, he's a shooting guard).

FSU's talent probably is better than in any of those ACC .500-type seasons, but the league is too tough to allow a building team to get NCAA-type numbers.

Verdict: Not quite yet.

Michigan
Last NCAA trip
: 1998. (Last NCAA trip that wasn't vacated: 1995).

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The Wolverines routinely were awful last year. They won only five Big Ten games, and, given the weakness of the league, any good team would have won five Big Ten games after five or six tries.

Michigan, though, has two solid talents in Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims. And those players and their teammates have a better idea how to operate in coach John Beilein's sophisticated offense.

As the middle and bottom of the Big Ten weaken even further, there could be room for Michigan to make a huge leap forward. That's not really been the pattern for Beilein's teams, though. The schedule is conducive to continued progress, but not to collecting NCAA-quality wins.

Verdict: Not ready for prime time.


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