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Another Day, Another Dollar for NFL Dogs:
So Week 11 in the NFL ended Monday night exactly as it began last Thursday --- with the underdog posting the outright victory. And several more dogs covered in between, continuing what's been a torrid four-week stretch for the pups.
Last night, the Titans were getting 3.5 points at Houston and ended up not needing them. After starting the year 0-6 straight-up (SU) and 1-5 against the spread (ATS), Tennessee notched its fourth consecutive SU and ATS victory, topping the Texans 20-17 on a last-minute field goal.
That gave the puppies a 9-6-1 mark at the betting window for week 11, and over the past four weeks, the dogs have compiled a stout 36-19-2 ATS record, covering the number at a solid 65.5 percent clip.
And as I always say, when underdogs are covering only two things are happening and they're both bad: gamblers are losing their shirts and sportsbooks are making big money. Why? Because gamblers and even handicappers gravitate toward favorites; most players would rather lay the points than take them. So when dogs hit at a 65 percent clip over a four-week span, you might as well give sportsbooks a license to print money.
FYIFour of the nine underdog winners in Week 11 claimed outright wins, with Tennessee joining Miami and surprising victors Kansas City and Oakland.
Adding Up the NFL:
With 160 regular-season games complete, and the underdogs on their big tear, they now hold an eight-game lead over the chalks, at 83-75-2 ATS.
The Titans' cover also capped a strong week for road teams, who went 10-5-1 ATS. For the season, visitors are up 16 games on the home squads, with an 87-71-2 record against the oddsmakers.
And those SU winners just continue to get it done at the betting window. After going 10-5-1 ATS in Week 11, they now stand at 127-31-2 ATS in regular-season play, beating the number 80.4 percent of the time. Add in the preseason, and NFL SU winners are 183-36-6 ATS (83.6 percent).
College Football Two-Minute Drill:
If it's a weekday, and it's college football, it's almost gotta involve the Mid-American Conference. So no surprise that tonight we have Ball State, which delivered us David Letterman, traveling to face Western Michigan. Let's check the numbers:
Ball State, which went a perfect 12-0 SU in the regular season last year, is on a 1-12 SU plunge ever since (5-7 ATS in lined games). Yet the Cardinals still sport positive ATS streaks of 21-7 on the highway and 16-5 as a road pup.
Western Michigan is on pointspread slides of 3-10 overall (1-4 last five), 0-5 after a SU win, 5-12 laying points and 6-14-1 in the big MAC.
The SU winner is on a 10-0 ATS tear in this rivalry, and in the last eight, Ball State has gone 6-2 SU and ATS, winning the last two meetings and four of the last five.
And a couple more FYIs on weekday college football this season: the favorites went 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS last week to take a razor-thin 25-24-1 ATS advantage for the year; weekday road teams are 30-19-1 ATS in those 50 games; and SU winners (surprise!) are 39-10-1 at the betting window (79.6 percent).
NBA Fast Break:
We'll finish it off today with a little NBA:
The Thunder are on ATS rolls of 36-17 after a SU loss and 21-7 after a pointspread defeat, with the host Jazz on deck in a battle of teams with singular nicknames.
Utah is on ATS purges of 0-4 in the Northwest Division, 2-10 coming off a SU win and 1-6 after a two-day break.
The Thunder are 6-2 ATS on their last eight trips to Utah, and the underdog is on an 11-5 ATS run in this rivalry.
- Al DeMarco, General Manager of VegasAdvisors.com and the featured handicapping analyst on Comcast Sports TV in New York and Chicago, is a 25-year veteran of the handicapping industry. Get his daily advice and betting strategies at VegasAdvisors.com
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