Richmond rumble for final Chase spots
Edwards rates edge to win but expect scramble to lock in playoff field
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Five drivers – those who hold the top five spots in the standings -- are already in the Chase: Points leader Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards (my pick to win at Richmond), Dale Earnhardt Jr., two-time defending Sprint Cup champion Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Burton.
Greg Biffle is sixth in points and all he has to do is start the race and he’s made NASCAR’s version of a postseason. I’m also putting in the Chase those drivers who come to Richmond 7 through 10 in the standings. They are respectively Kevin Harvick, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth and Jeff Gordon.
While each would love to win the event their primary mission is to points race to secure a spot in the playoff. They need to do their best to keep out of wrecks and drive wisely and minimize any risk over the 400 laps.
In none of their cases are we talking about needing to have a truly dominant car for 300 miles. Rather just a solidly competitive one that achieves the goal each driver must meet at Richmond to make the Chase.
For Harvick, it’s finishing next to last or last if he leads at least one lap. Stewart must cross the checkers 35th or 36th if he leads at least one lap or 40th if he leads the most laps. In Kenseth’s case the Chase becomes a reality with a result of 25th or 27th if he leads at least one lap or 30th if he leads the most laps. And for Gordon qualifying will take a finish of 23rd or 24th with at least one lap led or 28th with the most laps led.
So I have 10 in the Chase and I am looking at a four-way battle between Denny Hamlin, Clint Bowyer, David Ragan and Kasey Kahne for the final two playoff spots. Hamlin (who is 11th in the standings) is in if he crosses the checkers 20th or 22nd if he leads one lap or 25th if he leads the most laps. Bowyer, 12th in points and just 17 markers in front of Ragan and 31 up on Kahne, needs to win or place second or third and lead the most laps.
Bowyer, for one, says he loves the pressure that will be present throughout the Richmond race. The others fighting for spots might not share that sentiment. For all not yet in the postseason field but holding places 7 through 12 in the standings, avoiding a bad day either mechanically or wreck-wise and just going out and putting forth a hard-working competitive Sunday drive should be enough to get them in the mix to compete for a championship starting next weekend in New Hampshire.
Keys to success at Richmond
Racing at Richmond seldom leaves fans disappointed. There is usually a lot of action, a lot of passing and plenty of paint-swapping. There is usually a lot of contact between cars as they get into the corners, so staying out of the wall presents a stern challenge. But with some drivers battling for playoff spots, there may be less of the bumping and banging this time around.
With the repaving of the track in the fall of 2004, drivers found their tires had a tremendous grip on new pavement. And the new pavement has spread the groove out so we might see cars run two to two and half lanes up on the track.
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It's very important to be consistently fast getting around the bottom of Turns 1 and 2. Also, drivers must be cautious not to get their brakes too hot from overusing them in the corners. But they are well aware of this and it should not be a huge concern.
Watch as the cars go down into Turn 1. If you look at the right front tire, if it's cherry red in the center -- which is where the brake rotor is -- that means the driver is heavily using his brakes to help the car handle. Needless to say, that's not a good sign for that car's brakes.
Drivers will be asking their spotters how the right front brake looks in an effort to help determine if they are taxing their brakes too much. Abusing the brakes can sometimes lead to a right front tire failure.
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Another factor is getting into the pits during green-flag pit stops. Doing that can sometimes be tricky at Richmond because of the abrupt transition from the banking on the track to a pretty flat entrance to pit road and the racing debris that makes the pavement slippery in spots.
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