Lesnar-Couture the right call for UFC
Nogueira may be more worthy, but Lesnar brings star power and ability
![]() Josh Hedges / Zuffa Brock Lesnar has made a statement with his performances in the octagon. |
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So what.
It is a fight millions will want to see, and a record number might dig into their wallets to watch.
There will also be those who say that MMA should be about sport, not showcase, and truth be told, they’re right, too.
But there are always exceptions, and this is a very special exception. You can’t blame UFC for occasionally exercising the flexibility they’ve built into their organization. They are not beholden to ranking sytems, governing bodies and mandatory challengers like boxing is. In this 21st century sport, those ancient factors don’t matter. The best available showcase matchup is always within their grasp. Don’t kid yourself; plenty of other sports leagues are jealous beyond words at that fact.
NBA commissioner David Stern was once asked what his dream Finals matchup would be. He famously -- and controversially -- answered, “The Lakers versus the Lakers.” It was during the Shaq-Kobe era, and the purple and gold were without question the glamour franchise of the league. Stern took some heat for the response, but it only goes to prove that if the decision-makers at the top of sports could pre-determine their biggest ticket matchups, they’d go for a combination of sizzle and steak.
That’s exactly what the UFC is doing with Couture vs. Lesnar.
“We do research on these things if you can believe it,” UFC President Dana White said. “Obviously, with Randy coming back, he’s one of the most popular fighters ever. And after Brock’s beating of Heath [Herring], a lot of people are interested in him. Not just WWE fans. So once we started breaking it down and looking at it, we realized this is a fight people want to see. They’re going to tune into see if Brock can beat Randy Couture.”
For those believing interim champ Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria is getting a raw deal and Lesnar is getting the sweetheart deal, look at it this way: This is a four-man mini tournament. There are two outcomes for Lesnar. Either he loses somewhere along the way and gets exposed as too green, or he emerges from two matches with the belt and proves he is positively deserving of being the champion.
Here’s the crazy part of it all: Despite his inexperience, Brock Lesnar has a serious chance of doing just that.
Some think Couture will have a big wrestling advantage over Lesnar, but it may not be as significant as it seems. In fact, it may be non-existent. While Couture wrestled on the U.S. national team for years, Lesnar was an NCAA champ and many believe he was good enough to have challenged for a spot on the U.S. Olympic team had he decided to go that route. Who’s got the wrestling advantage? There’s only one way to find out.
For whatever it’s worth, Couture opened as a solid betting favorite at around -160, but according to one source, the early money was coming in solidly on Lesnar. You may ask what significance that has, but historically, people who bet on the early line are what’s known as “sharp money,” highly informed bettors; casual fans are more likely to bet during the week of the fight.
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The Lesnar doubters will rightly point out that there are many question marks about Lesnar’s game that have yet to be addressed, let alone answered. No one has seen him take a real hard shot in a live match situation. No one has put him on his back. No one has grinded him down and truly tested his endurance.
But the reality of it all is that these are still question marks because no one has been able to exploit them.
In the leadup to the Herring fight, Lesnar told NBCSports.com, “I like having some mystery about my game. I like having a few surprises in my holster, and I’ll keep them there for as long as I can, until I really need them.”
Still, Lesnar has a combination of speed, power and size that is going to be difficult for anyone to deal with, including Couture. By the time they walk into the cage, Lesnar will likely outweigh Couture by 55 pounds [Couture always weighs around 225; Lesnar cuts weight to make the 265-pound heavyweight limit, then rehydrates to around 280 on fight night].
Lesnar might just be able to dictate the location of the match. If he is indeed able to put Couture on his back, it will be a difficult bout for the UFC champ to win. With the current state of judging, it is nearly impossible to win a round off your back, and Couture has never submitted an opponent from that position, either.
But the secrets in Lesnar’s holster will not measure up to the tricks up Couture’s sleeve that only come with time, training and competition.
It would be a fatal mistake to count Couture out, and even though he seems a bit upset the Fedor Emelianenko fight isn’t happening [at one point of the conference call announcing his return, Couture straight up said “I’d rather be fighting Fedor in November”], he has always managed to come up with huge efforts under adverse conditions. In his last two fights, he manhandled Tim Sylvia and Gabriel Gonzaga.
Sylvia is a 6-foot-8 giant, but has primarily been a standup fighter, and that played right into Couture’s takedown game. Gonzaga has had a history of running out of steam, and Couture wore him down with some early takedowns and broke his nose during a takedown en route to pounding him out. It’s not going to be quite as easy to manhandle Lesnar. Throw in the fact that Lesnar actually prides himself on having an endless gas tank, and it’s a whole different game.
Couture’s wife, Kim, told ESPN Radio Las Vegas that Randy has yet to even watch the Lesnar-Herring fight. He is known for being a brilliant tactician, but he may find the holes in Lesnar’s game are closing rather quickly.
The hot prospect against the grizzled veteran. The brash challenger against the humble champ. The mainstream star against MMA’s golden boy. It all adds up to marketing gold.
The heavyweight division is supposed to be the glamour division of combat sports. The reaction from yesterday proves that UFC has done the right thing: giving the fans the fight they want to see.
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