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Manning, Colts eye return to Super Bowl

New stadium, few offseason losses keep Indy as AFC contender

Image: Peyton Manning Reuters
The powerful combination of Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy is one of the only things you can count on in an unpredictable NFL, writes Dan Pompei.

Dan Pompei
There is death. There are taxes. And there is the Colts contending.

We can be sure again of the Colts being in the mix for the AFC championship this year, as they have been for the last five years. The powerful combination of Peyton Manning and Tony Dungy is one of the only things you can count on in an unpredictable league.

As usual, there is much to like about the Colts besides the quarterback and the head coach.

Manning's offensive support group is excellent, as Reggie Wayne led the NFL in receiving yards, Joseph Addai was second in the league in rushing touchdowns and Dallas Clark is one of the most reliable tight ends in the league.

Only two defenses allowed fewer yards than the Colts last year, and the Colts defense undoubtedly would have been more effective if defensive end Dwight Freeney had not missed the last seven games with a foot injury. In order for the Colts to be all they can be in 2008, they'll need a healthy Freeney causing havoc off the edge. Freeney is expected to miss the early stages of training camp but be ready by the time the regular season starts.

But theirs is not a one-man defense. They might have the best safety combination in football with Pro Bowlers Bob Sanders and Antoine Bethea. They have a deep group of cornerbacks led by Marlin Jackson. And general manager Bill Polian has done an outstanding job of finding players like defensive end Robert Mathis, defensive tackle Ed Johnson, middle linebacker Gary Brackett and outside linebacker Freddie Keiaho who are perfect fits for Dungy's defense.

About the only question most people have about the Colts is the usual one—can they get past the Patriots? They lost to the Patriots in the regular season last year, but never got to play them in the playoffs after being knocked out by the Chargers.

This year, the Colts need to be worried about the Chargers again, as well as an ever-improving AFC field that could be gaining on this excellent team.

Hot seat
Marvin Harrison is 35 years old. He played in only five games last season and is trying to come back from a knee injury that likely will keep him out of much of training camp. His name was thrown into a controversial murder case in the offseason. And the Colts drafted his eventual replacement, Anthony Gonzalez, in 2007.

Harrison may be a future hall of famer, but he has much to prove regarding his present status with the Colts.

Overheard at camp
It will be interesting to watch the dynamic between Dungy and head coach in waiting Jim Caldwell. In the offseason the Colts decided to make Caldwell the eventual successor to Dungy, who has talked about retiring for a couple of years now.

Caldwell currently is the associate head coach, and he is expected to be involved in big picture issues as Dungy sees fit. Dungy isn't yet sure when he will retire, but the Colts want to be prepared for that day. Caldwell will be learning on the job.

Comings and goings
The Colts typically judge their offseason based on how many good players they lost. By that standard, they did not do too badly in 2008.

The biggest loss was starting guard Jake Scott. But the Colts are well positioned to absorb the loss, with veteran tackle Charlie Johnson ready to move inside, and second round draft pick Mike Pollak serving as the backup plan.

They also lost tight end Ben Utecht, and will need to find a way to replace his production in two tight end sets.

The Colts didn't add much in free agency, but they did pick up an old friend after the Raiders cut Dominic Rhodes. Look for Rhodes to re-establish himself as the No. 2 back in Indy.

Prediction
Over the last five years, the Colts have won 13, 12, 14, 12 and 12 games. Notice a trend?

They should be in the same ballpark again this season, as Manning is in the prime of his career and the Colts are benefiting continuity on both sides of the ball. Opening up a new home stadium, Lucas Oil Field, could give the Colts a shot of adrenalin and make them even more dangerous than usual.

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Dan Pompei writes regularly for NBCSports.com and covers the NFL for the Chicago Tribune.

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