Sam Smith

OK, OK, we know Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley are the can't-miss guys. And I don't think they will miss. It may take Rose a bit longer than Beasley to get comfortable in the NBA because playing point guard is probably the league's toughest position.

How many times was Steve Nash traded? How about Jason Kidd? They're likely both going to the Hall of Fame. Deron Williams wasn't a starter when he got to the Utah Jazz and it took John Stockton three years to become a starter.

Beasley seems ready. He's shooting and going to the basket no matter who's on the court with him. So he could put up some big numbers right away and be Rookie of the Year. But the Chicago Bulls are betting Rose fills an elusive position that could mean long-term results. I'm with them on that.

But after those two, good luck on finding an NBA star in this class.

There usually are a few players who emerge, but the history of the lottery and the upper half of the draft is that about one-third of the top 15 picks are out of the NBA within a few years.

It seems impossible to imagine the way teams are hungering after top picks now and selling these young players as the future of their franchise. Sure, some will become that. But a substantial number will be busts who never make it in the NBA.

Here's a look at players who were selected high in the draft and washed out the past 10 years:

1998: Michael Olowokandi (1), Robert Traylor (6), Keon Clark (13) and Michael Dickerson (14). And it's unclear if Jason Williams, selected sixth, will find a team this season.

1999: Jonathan Bender (5), Trajan Langdon (11), Alexsandar Radojevic (12), William Avery (14) and Frederic Weis (15).

2000: Darius Miles (3), Marcus Fizer (4), DerMarr Johnson (6), Jerome Moiso (11), Courtney Alexander (13) and Mateen Cleaves (14).

2001: Eddie Griffin (7), Rodney White (9) and Kedrick Brown (11).

2002: Jay Williams (2), Nikoloz Tskitishvili (5), Dujuan Wagner (6) and Marcus Haislip (13).

2003: Michael Sweetney (9) and Reece Gaines (15).

2004: Rafael Araujo (8) and Luke Jackson (10).

2005: Fran Vazquez (11, never came to NBA), Yaroslav Korolev (12) and Sean May (13) whose career could be over with injuries though Charlotte is saying for now he'll return.

2006: Patrick O'Bryant (9, seems destined for NBDL), Mouhamed Sene (10, another NBDLer), J.J. Redick (11, and going nowhere in Orlando).

The list tells you that if you get a lottery pick, even a high one, you are hardly guaranteed of getting a star. Fans rarely see it that way and often project the skills and talents of college players well beyond their NBA abilities. As good as Rose was in college, he was just a freshman and will be playing against men next season who will try to beat him up and push him around. It's difficult for even the best college players to make the transition, and many do not.

Sure, there are certain stars like Tim Duncan, Shaquille O'Neal and LeBron James whom you know will become elite players. But even last season with Greg Oden at No. 1, we still don't know because he missed the entire season after knee surgery.

So given that, who is going to make it big from this draft after the Big Two?

The most likely, based on the way he has come on fast since the end of the college season, is USC's O.J. Mayo.

Coming out of high school, Mayo was believed to be another James, a superstar athlete.

He's not that at all, but he appears to be a player who will be mature enough for the NBA with a good work ethic and a willingness to play defense. He's not a fabulous athlete as all the high-school hype suggested, but he looks like he'll make plays and stand up to the physical tests of the NBA. The pros are marking him down as a keeper.

Though not generally regarded to have big-star potential, UCLA's Kevin Love, the pros believe, appears to be a player who'll have a long NBA career. Love is not a big leaper or fabulous dunker, but he's got those dreaded neo analyst attributes of a "motor" and high basketball "IQ" that should serve him well. There's often said to be a racial element to this, that the white players get pictured as smarter — high basketball IQ — because they are not good athletes.

Love simply appears to the pros to be a player who'll make plays. His outlet passing leaves scouts hyperventilating. He's a willing worker and should find a spot on almost any team. He doesn't seem smarter than most of his contemporaries, but he'll be a good team player and good fit.

Though there were more questions raised about Stanford's Brook Lopez in the days leading up to the draft, there's a feeling that with a bit of time he will develop into a center a team can feature for a decade. He might be the poster child for what many around the NBA said is the eventual result of players leaving college too early or in previous years going straight from high school. They may become stars, but they'll never reach their true potential, and perhaps we've been seeing that in a somewhat watered down NBA during which the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers met for the 2008 championship and maybe one or two of the players on both teams could have played for their respective teams of the 1980s.

Some NBA executives say they see a raw sophomore version of Tim Duncan in Lopez, a player who, if he played college ball for two more years and developed mentally and physically, could become a dominant big man. His growth will likely be stunted some by coming into the NBA now and having to perform. But he should be a solid contributor for several years.

The long-shot guy who may have the biggest ceiling is LSU's Anthony Randolph. He's the guy pros fear. They hate to take him now because he's not ready, and few jobs wait several years anymore in this "produce now" society. Fans, teams, coaches and executives rarely have the patience anymore to wait out talent.

Randolph is one who could cause a lot of second-guessing in future years. While he will be just 18 at the draft and quiet, his all-around skills may be the best among all the players, except perhaps for the top two. If someone is patient, they may be in for a pleasant surprise.

And if all these lottery guys still are in the NBA in five years, we all should be surprised.

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