Mike Brunker Horse racing editor • Profile • E-mail

BALTIMORE -

Sometimes you just have to go with the obvious.

Facing only one Kentucky Derby rival and 11 other horses whose trainers and owners are just taking a shot, Big Brown will cruise to victory in Saturday’s 133^rd running of the Preakness Stakes, setting up a bid for a long-awaited Triple Crown three weeks hence.

With the Rick Dutrow Jr.-trained colt installed as the overwhelming 1-2 morning line favorite, though, Big Brown’s supporters are going to have to get creative if they expect to add much to the bankrolls they built by backing him to buck history in the Derby. For those with short-term memory loss, that’s the race in which Big Brown became the first horse since 93 years to win the race off just three lifetime starts and the first horse in 79 years to win from the ultra-tough 20 post.

Even though I thought Big Brown was the most talented horse in the Derby field, I figured his inexperience and poor post position might be enough to get him beat. Needless to say, that prediction didn’t turn out so well.

Now, as he faces a smaller field that is not as tough as the one he confronted in Louisville, I can’t think of a single reason why I shouldn’t climb aboard and claim a back row seat on the Big Brown bandwagon.

But let me do so with this caveat to anyone who would try to make a killing by betting a bundle on the favorite: Even though Big Brown looks dominant on paper, he still has to run the race. And the Preakness has had its share of spectacular flameouts.

I remember watching Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus labor home a non-threatening second as the 3-10 favorite in 2000 after encountering a drying Pimlico racetrack that was the consistency of peanut butter.  And in 1972, 3-10 favorite Riva Ridge didn’t even manage to hit the board, finishing fourth behind long shot Bee Bee Bee.

And apart from the possibility of a wet track, which appears unlikely at this point, Big Brown does have a couple potential holes in his game.

He has never been seriously challenged in any of his four lifetime starts. Without knowing that he possesses the mental toughness of the great ones, there’s no way to tell how he’ll react if another horse looks him in the eye at some stage of the race.

Big Brown also has started from the outside in his last three races, where he has been able to steer clear of potential traffic troubles and use his athletic prowess to its best effect.  But on Saturday, he will break from the middle of the 13-horse field in post 7. If he gets bumped hard at the start or gets away a step slow, he will find himself in a situation he has never faced:  Being caught behind horses and getting dirt kicked in his face. Some horses don’t take kindly to that annoyance and simply stop trying.

That said, the bay son of Boundary and the Nuryev mare Mien, Big Brown already has demonstrated a very professional demeanor. He didn’t turn a hair on Derby day in the Churchill Downs paddock, a claustrophobic enclosure when populated by 19 other thoroughbreds and their human handlers and surrounded by TV camera crews and a frenzied crowd.

And his jockey, Kent Desormeaux, says Big Brown is both smart and extremely tractable during a race, which makes it unlikely that he will lose his composure even if he does encounter trouble during the Preakness.

Barring a mental meltdown or a physical ailment that has yet to make its presence felt, Big Brown looks to have his rivals over a barrel in the 1 3/16^ths-mile Preakness.

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