OPINION

By Mike DeCourcy

updated 4:48 p.m. ET April 30, 2008

Mike DeCourcy

We've only been through this twice, but it did not take long to establish the pattern: The freshmen arrive, dominate the game and leave as suddenly as they appear. This new paradigm provided the thrill of watching Greg Oden block shots, Kevin Durant fling jumpers, Michael Beasley snatch rebounds and Derrick Rose hang in the air while inventing another impossible finish.

We shouldn't get too accustomed to this.

Next season's freshmen might believe they are ready to fill those shoes, whether it's the sneakers those fellows wore on court or the Ferragamos that carry them across the stage on NBA draft night. The recruiting class of 2008, however, does not feature that level of talent--which means somebody in this relationship is bound to be disappointed.

Either the freshmen are going to be hacked off that their dance into the NBA does not resemble the festive conga line their immediate predecessors enjoyed or the colleges are going to be steamed after a bunch of 11-pointsa- game guys pull a hit-and-run.

In the two years the NBA's age minimum has been in place, all but one player Scout.com ranked as a top five prospect -- North Carolina's Ty Lawson -- turned pro after a single season. That would translate into such players as Samardo Samuels and Jrue Holiday entering the draft next April -- and they're just not one-and-done talents.

Scout.com analyst Dave Telep thinks Samuels is likely to emerge as an instant college star. But Samuels is a 6-8, 240-pound low-post specialist with moderate athleticism, and the demand for such players in the NBA is not overwhelming.

There isn't a program in the country that wouldn't love to add Holiday, a 6-3 guard headed to UCLA. For Holiday to develop his package of athleticism, selflessness and burgeoning skill into an NBA-ready package will require a minimum of two years, possibly three if he is to grow into what should be his best pro position: point guard.

"These are multiyear people," Telep says. "You pick up your media guide and see, 'This school signed the No. 4 player in America.' Automatically, you're expecting what you've seen the past two years. You have to take off your school-colored glasses and look at the big picture."

Programs that wind up in the NCAA Tournament or advance to its later stages because of contributions from one-and-done players can justify the long-term disruption the departures cause. Players who turn into lottery picks after one season can view the NBA-forced delay of their paydays with some degree of tolerance.

But when neither side gets what it wants, these shotgun weddings may lead to some uneasy marriages.

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